by Dan W on January 22, 2014
My proof reader, harshest critic, and prepping partner (my bride of 45 years) read my first cut of this article and told me that it was interesting. but boring! She may be right, but I still think it’s worthy of a few minutes of your time to read. The points I make may be intuitively obvious to the most casual observer but, even if that’s the case, they just might offer some guidance to help us better understand the timeline of how things might shake out. and how that will affect our actions. If we understand the structure of an Event cycle it might help us to prepare more effectively. In this post I have used the word “Event” to describe anything we would otherwise refer to as “SHTF” or “TEOTWAWKI”. The term “Phase” describes distinct (although variable) blocks of time before, during, and after an “Event”.
As I go through my routines of prepping the topic of this article kept popping into my mind. For me, and I suppose for all of us, prepping is a constant cycle of reviewing my plans and evaluating priorities for the purchase of goods we still needed. That and trying to figure out how much is enough keeps me busy! I find that attempting to balance the issue of available funds (we’re retired and on a fairly fixed income) versus the timeline of how soon the items might be needed is an almost daily task. Our “prepping” priorities can quickly change as U.S. and World events mutate and continue to degrade. Decoding the available information regarding world affairs (in an effort to make intelligent decisions) can drive a person to distraction. Even so, we must keep our focus on the reality of our own situations. I guess it’s a matter of trying to productively function somewhere between Chicken Little’s “the sky is falling” and a more complacent attitude of “watch and wait”.
While working intently to prepare for “it”, I realized that I had become somewhat preoccupied with the “right now” aspect of prepping. Sure, like all of us, I try to stay plugged in to many different sources of information; but, was I so caught up in the minute details of prepping that I had lost my focal balance regarding the bigger picture? Not necessarily that I had lost my vision that is the motivational force behind my prepping, but more like the tasks of dealing with the details kept my focus “in the weeds”. Was I overlooking anything important? Was I was focusing too much on accumulating what I thought I’d need to have on hand and not enough on the broader ramifications of what will likely occur as a result of an Event? These points were also driven home after a recent conversation with some fellow Preppers. This discussion provided more impetus to give additional thought to the many details of prepping for TEOTWAWKI! Seems as though we each had a somewhat different opinion regarding what would take place after an Event. Obviously we all look at an Events impact in terms of its effect on our immediate locale …….. but…….. how will things unfold?
My thoughts keep coming back to the same sequence: There’s now, there’s when it happens (whatever “it” ends up being), and then there is “after it happens”. Although these are simple statements, they cover a lot of ground and deserve some in-depth analysis. I recently spent some time thinking about this trio of statements and all that they might imply. How would these three phases affect me/you personally?
It’s my belief that all Events (large or small) follow a timeline that can be broken down into distinct Phases. Each Phase carries with it a different set of criteria for personal survival. Although there are many different possible worst case scenarios for an Event, all will follow the same basic script:
Phase 1 – Pre-Event
Phase 2 – The Event Occurs.
Phase 3 – Reaction of the General Public to the Event.
Phase 4 – Government Reaction to the General Public’s Reaction to the Event.
Phase 5 – Individual Reaction to the Governments Reaction to the Event:
Phase 6 – Stabilization of Situation Post Event.
Phase 7 – Long Term Adjustment of Population and Governments to Situations Resulting from the Event.
Phase 1 – Pre-Event: We are all now in the final stages of Phase 1. News from all over the globe is rife with stories of discontent, war, insurrection, natural disaster, disease, geological changes, financial instability and more. There are more people competing for fewer resources, a greater proliferation of weaponry (all of it much more deadly on a grander scale), less fiscal and personal responsibility, degradation of public morality, etc., etc. It would be difficult to identify a time when things were more unstable. Is our current world any different than it was 50 years ago? How about the way it was 100 years ago? Of course it’s different: We live in the most dangerous of times! There is no debate about the threats posed to all of us by the status of today’s world. A prudent person would say that the structure of Society is fragmented and appears to be teetering on collapse.