Natural gas, North Dakota, oil
By Institute for Energy Research
Saturday, October 5, 2013
Oil and natural gas production are expected to reach increasingly high levels as production on private lands continues to grow and as shale formations continue to increase their output of oil and gas using hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling technology. Several states have been at the forefront of the shale production movement, but the best recognized is North Dakota, whose unemployment rate is less than half that of the nation, whose economy is growing at over 13 percent per year, and whose state revenues are overflowing. Several other states are now interested in following in North Dakota’s footsteps to get themselves financially healthy. These states include but are not limited to California, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Increasingly High Levels of Oil and Natural Gas Production Expected
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook expects U.S. crude oil production to increase from an average of 6.5 million barrels per day in 2012 to 7.5 million barrels per day in 2013 and 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, which is an average growth rate of almost 14 percent per year. According to the agency, the bulk of the growth in production is in tight oil plays in the onshore Williston, Western Gulf, and Permian basins. Offshore production from the Federal Gulf of Mexico continues to lag behind the onshore gains, forecast to average 1.26 million barrels per day in 2013, the same level as in 2012, and to average to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2014—a slight increase.(i)
In 2005, net imports of petroleum fuels reached a high of 12.5 million barrels per day, and its share of U.S. consumption peaked at more 60 percent. But those statistics have fallen largely due to the hydraulic fracturing revolution, but also to lower demand and increased biofuels production. Total net petroleum imports fell to 7.4 million barrels per day in 2012 (40 percent of U.S. petroleum liquids consumption), and are expected to decline to 5.4 million barrels per day in 2014 (29 percent of liquids fuels consumption in 2014)–the lowest level since 1985.
Natural gas production is also increasing and continues to set records. Marketed production is expected to increase from 69.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2012 to 69.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2013 and to 70.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2014. Onshore production, particularly on private and state lands, again due to hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, increases over the forecast period; federal Gulf of Mexico production continues to decline. Except for a few years where production increased slightly, federal offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico has been on a steady decline.